Round 12 features a top 8 matchup on Friday night, the Dees take on the Swans and a top 4 battle between the Dockers and Lions.
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
As expected, the Dogs thrashed the Eagles by a big margin (101 pts) and got some form into their younger players. Naughton also kicked 4 goals up forward and Tim English made a successful return from injury. The Dogs will be boosted by the return of Bailey Smith for this clash. They’ll be looking to quell the influence of Tom Stewart when moving forward and that’ll start with winning the clearances.
Geelong accounted for the Crows at home on Saturday in a 97-55 victory last week. Stewart did as he pleased in the backline with 40 touches and Cameron kicked 4 goals. The Cats have a good record at Marvel and against the Dogs so they’ll be confident. However, Dangerfield is still out with injury and that’ll hurt them against the Dogs stacked midfield. But they’re expecting Rohan and Stanley to return from injury.
Both sides come into this clash with winning form so this should be a cracking start to Round 12. We have two teams that score over 90 points per game and Marvel Stadium should see a fast-paced game. The Over has also saluted in 6 of the last 7 meetings and we like the trend.
The Dogs are 4-1 at Marvel this season. Geelong has won 8 of their last 11 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2009, the Cats are 14-2 against the Bulldogs.
The Crows are coming off a long losing streak and another tough loss against the Cats last Saturday. Inaccuracy in front of goals hurt their chances as they kicked 7.13. However, they’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to improve their conversion rate against the struggling Eagles backline. The potential return of Taylor Walker and possibly Josh Rachele in their forward line will be a huge boost as well.
The Eagles come off a 101 point loss against the Eagles and will need to show something against the Crows in Adelaide. They lost McGovern early on in the contest and will be hoping he can regroup to play this week. However, their long injury list probably won’t improve until after their bye in a few weeks.
While Adelaide should win at home, they’re not the kind of the side that can blow sides away so we like the Eagles to show something. They have a decent record in Adelaide and have the wood over the Crows as well. Their forward line is also stronger with Darling and Kennedy back.
Adelaide has lost their last 3 at home. West Coast are 9-3 at the Adelaide Oval in their history.
Head to Head Record
West Coast are riding a 5 game winning streak against the Crows.
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
The Suns were impressive against the Hawks last Saturday night in the 121-54 victory. They smashed the Hawks in the midfield and their forward line was hard to stop as a result. They’ll look to continue the same game plan against the Roos. Touk Miller has been their standout player this year and the Suns will be fired up in his 150th AFL game this weekend.
It was another large loss for the Kangaroos on Sunday as they went down to the Saints. Jed Anderson played well in a beaten side as he made 12 tackles and had 7 clearances. However, their forward line is struggling to convert and the Suns backline will pose a tough challenge. This won’t be helped by an injury to Zurhaar.
Games at TIO Stadium are a bit like wet weather footy and we like the chances of a low scoring affair. North have serious forward line problems and I don’t see it improving against Gold Coast. The Under has saluted in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Gold Coast won at this venue last week by 67 pts. The Kangaroos have never played at TIO Stadium.
The Dees undefeated run is over after the Dockers stormed home to beat them at the MCG. However, a mid-game injury to Steven May was a huge reason why and proved why their backline is so strong with him. In this clash, they’ll likely get Harmes, Langdon, McDonald and Salem back from injury. So Melbourne will be confident of getting back on track.
Sydney rallied to beat the Tigers in one of the games of the season on Friday night. Buddy Franklin kicked 5 goals in the 106-100 result. However, he’ll miss this clash with suspension after striking Cotchin. So McLean will likely come into the side and Sam Reid will need to take over as their key forward. The Swans will also look to put attention into the likes of Oliver and Petracca around the stoppages.
No Franklin is a blow for the Swans forward line and their scoring ability. Melbourne will be motivated after losing last week and their defence should adjust after the May injury hurt them against Freo. While this should be a close game, the Dees at home are tough to back against. Melbourne to win by 1-39.
Melbourne lost at the ‘G last week but have won 6 of 7 this season. Sydney have a good record at the MCG, winning 5 of their last 7.
Hawthorn Hawks (13th) vs Collingwood Magpies (10th)
The Hawks were disappointing agianst the Suns on Saturday night in the 121-54 defeat. But motivation will be high on Sunday when Luke Breust and Liam Shiels both play their 250th game. Their ruck stocks has been rocked by injury this season but there is a chance that Lynch and Reeves can return to the side. They should also get O’Meara back from a hamstring issue. However, Scrimshaw won’t play due to a concussion.
The Pies outlasted the Blues 79-74 on Sunday in one of their best wins of the season. Oliver Henry continued his goal kicked form with 3 goals and Mason Cox was important with 6 marks. The Pies midfield will have a great matchup as the Hawks have been getting smashed in this area. So look for the likes of Crisp, Adams and De Goey to get plenty of the pill.
Collingwood have the advantage in this matchup as they won’t be coming off travel and will be up and about after beating Carlton. Hawthorn have a lot of injuries and their midfield will likely struggle to win the clearances. So we like the Pies to continue their march up the ladder.
Hawthorn have lost 4 of their last 5 at the MCG. Collingwood are 4-2 at the ‘G this season.
The Dockers produced the upset of the season as they beat the undefeated Dees at the MCG on Saturday – 94-56. Their forward line showed up after a couple of tough losses previously. Shultz kicked 4 goals and Rory Lobb had his best game of the year with 3 goals / 9 marks. Brisbane have a tough defence but Freo will be confident they can continue the momentum on their home turf.Taberner will likely miss with injury after being subbed out last week. Nat Fyfe could be sneaky late in but the Dockers will likely play him in the WAFL.
Brisbane came back to beat the Giants last week, 100-96. They conceded 8 goals in the first quarter and will look to improve their starts against Freo. Expect Lachie Neale to get plenty of the footy against his former team and he comes off a brilliant 39 disposal outing against GWS. They should get McCluggage back for this clash after he missed last week.
This should be a tight game between two top 4 sides but Brisbane does look good value at the line. They’re scoring over 100 points per game this season and have also won 5 of the last 6 against Freo. While a win over Melbourne was huge, the Dockers did lose against the Pies at home a few weeks ago.
Freo have won 4 of their last 5 at home. Brisbane are 2-1 at this venue in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 5-1 against the Dockers in the last 6 meetings.
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