Horse Racing Bets – Doncaster Mile – Randwick Racecourse – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

2021 DONCASTER MILE PUNTING PREVIEW

3YO & Upwards HANDICAP

1600m

$3,000,000

HEAVY 8 (SOFT 5/6 Predicted)

RAIL – TRUE

 

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight
(kg)
Current Price
1 24×51 MUGATOO K LEES H BOWMAN (4) 56 $4.20
2 05×33 AVILIUS JAMES CUMMINGS J B MC DONALD (12) 56 $12.00
3 24×86 SAMADOUBT B BAKER J PARR (14) 56 $67.00
4 x4169 STAR OF THE SEAS C WALLER S CLIPERTON (9) 54 $26.00
5 8x60x OLMEDO ANNABEL NEASHAM TOMMY BERRY (5) 54 $101.00
6 14×30 SHOUT THE BAR G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT TIM CLARK (20) 53.5 $34.00
7 0x415 GEM SONG K LEES J R COLLETT (19) 52.5 Scratched
8 3647x ZAAKI ANNABEL NEASHAM REGAN BAYLISS (22) 53.5 $81.00
9 1×116 AEGON M B & A FORSMAN K MCEVOY (7) 53 $13.00
10 25×34 CASCADIAN JAMES CUMMINGS JAMIE KAH (3) 53 $13.00
11 07×07 DALASAN LEON MACDONALD & ANDREW GLUYAS J HOLDER (1) 53 $41.00
12 3×121 THINK IT OVER K PARKER G BOSS (18) 52.5 $12.00
13 0x448 FUNSTAR C WALLER C WILLIAMS (17) 52.5 $17.00
14 22142 BEST OF DAYS JAMES CUMMINGS MS R KING (15) 52.5 $34.00
15 07×41 I AM SUPERMAN P & P SNOWDEN A ADKINS (10) 52 $26.00
16 30×34 ROCK M HAWKES J INNES JNR (8) 52 $26.00
17 00×87 NETTOYER WENDY ROCHE MICHAEL POY (6) 51 $67.00
18 14211 YAO DASH G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT M J DEE (11) 50.5 $11.00
19 7×321 MO’UNGA ANNABEL NEASHAM R DOLAN (21) 49.5 $8.50
20 31910 FORBIDDEN LOVE R & M FREEDMAN D YENDALL (13) 49.5 $16.00
21 x3354 ICEBATH BRAD WIDDUP J FORD (2) 50.5 $21.00
22 x1445 WHEELHOUSE C WALLER 49.5 $41.00

OVERVIEW

The time-honoured Doncaster Mile headlines one of the great days of the Australian turf this Saturday for Day 1 of the Championships from Royal Randwick. One of the most spirited betting races all year, the 2021 edition looks just that with a host full of chances and a number of converging form lines that should make for a fantastic spectacle come race time. A total of 11 Group 1 winners will face the starter in this year’s Doncaster, with the top weight Mugatoo looking to add his name to that list. He currently heads the market with BlueBet at $4.20. At the time of writing, the track was rated a HEAVY 8 after 24mm of rain on Wednesday. Drying conditions Friday and Saturday should see the track improve into the SOFT region.

 

SPEED MAP

Above average speed expected with YAO DASH and SAMADOUBT the two likely to push into controlling positions. SHOUT THE BAR and FUNSTAR should both push forward to try and negate wide draws with ICEBATH, who now gains a start, positioning right up from gate 2. I AM SUPERMAN finds a midfield spot in company with FORBIDDEN LOVE and DALASAN. OLMEDO just off them with BEST OF DAYS who’s an interesting runner speed map wise. Could also push on which it has done to affect in it’s last couple, most notably the Australian Cup. AEGON gets a nice run with the favourite MUGATOO midfield. STAR OF THE SEAS worse than midfield along with ROCK and THINK IT OVER. AVILIUS on his back next with stablemate CASCADIAN. MO’UNGA may have to go all the way back? ZAAKI and NETTOYER look to see them all.

 

ANALYSIS

Super Doncaster. A stack of depth here which makes finding the winner very difficult and luck in running/ track conditions will be crucial. MUGATOO ($4.20) does look a deserving favourite coming off a brilliant win in the All Star Mile. That race was run at a brutal tempo (15 lengths above benchmark to the 600m), which this horse just relished and played into his hands having form over longer trips. Track conditions also certainly played into his favour but he is likely to get his toe into the ground again, and has been perfectly prepared by the camp with the four weeks between runs. The niggle is whether or not he needs further now? Couple that with a somewhat sticky draw. He’s drawn inside on Saturday so will need luck at a crucial stage. Deserving favourite but like I said but he does look short enough in early markets so happy to bet around him. MO’UNGA is my top pick. Love the set-up for this exciting colt who drops back from the 2000m of the Rosehill Guineas, where he was dominant in winning. Historically it’s a profitable profile. With just 49kg on his back, he’ll get a chance to showcase his big turn of foot on the back of what looks a fast race shape. He’ll need a touch of luck from the gate, will need to follow the

right horse etc, but he’s good enough to gobble them up late. I expect him to get out slightly a

touch too from his current price so look to bet late. Other horses I give big chances too are the Godolphin pair of CASCADIAN and AVILIUS. The two chased hard last start in the George Ryder recording best of the day closing sectionals in what was undesired ground on the day. The rain only enhances their chances. The other three-year-old FORBIDDEN LOVE can also not be dismissed after starting favourite in the Coolmore last start and encountering traffic issues in the straight. Maps perfectly here.

FUNSTAR looks big odds having SP’ed favourite in the lead-up. Always runs well in these handicaps and should be ridden more prominently from the wide draw with the blinkers going on for the first time. Last time she was here course and distance she ran second to Probabeel in a G1 Epsom. Horses I’m happy to take on are YAO DASH and THINK IT OVER. Yao Dash comes off a big peak last start and is flying but it was bias assisted and he faces more company here on-pace. Think It Over is honest but has overachieved so far this prep and will need to overcome a poor draw on Saturday.

 

STRATEGY

MO’UNGA ($8.50). Smaller bets on AVILIUS ($12), FORBIDDEN LOVE ($16) & FUNSTAR ($17)

Mo’unga on top and my main play in the race for the reasons outlined. Like the set-up and historically three-year-olds have a fantastic record in the race with the light weight. Will need luck in running and a strong tempo but will be charging at the line. Working around Avilius, Forbidden Love and Funstar as the other chances in the race. Will be looking to have smaller bets on these horses at odds for a good result.

 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!