Horse Racing Bets – Champagne Stakes – Randwick Racecourse – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

2021 CHAMPAGNE STAKES PUNTING PREVIEW

GROUP 1 – 2YO

1600M

$500,000

TRACK – GOOD

RAIL – +6M 1000-WP, +4M Remainder

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight
(kg)
Current Price
1 4×353 CAPTIVANT P & P SNOWDEN J B MC DONALD (1) 56.5 $4.20
2 1272 HILAL M HAWKES TOMMY BERRY (4) 56.5 $3.50
3 1×621 CONVERGE G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT TIM CLARK (3) 56.5 $6.50
4 12016 DAILY BUGLE R GRIFFITHS & M DE KOCK L CURRIE (10) 56.5 $34.00
5 2×351 I’VE BEAN THERE S KENDRICK JAMES ORMAN (7) 56.5 $34.00
6 83312 MAURICE’S MEDAD B BAKER MS R KING (2) 56.5 $20.00
7 14 ARNAQUEUR JEAN DUBOIS A ADKINS (6) 56.5 $23.00
8 7523 AKAHATA B BAKER C WILLIAMS (12) 56.5 $23.00
9 16 PATTON M HAWKES J R COLLETT (13) 56.5 $81.00
10 32 PORT LOUIS C MAHER & D EUSTACE H BOWMAN (14) 56.5 $15.00
11 552 WOLFBURN B BAKER J PARR (5) 56.5 $61.00
12 9×35 LEASE A CUMMINGS J ALLEN (11) 56.5 $126.00
13 14×05 QUEEN OF WIZARDRY ANNABEL NEASHAM JAMIE KAH (9) 54.5 $11.00
14 623 GIN MARTINI J SARGENT B AVDULLA (8) 54.5 $8.00

OVERVIEW

The third leg of the Sydney two-year-old triple crown, the Champagne Stakes, will be run and won this Saturday as the babies line up for Group 1 glory over the famous Randwick mile. With a few big guns opting to bypass the race in recent weeks, most noticeably the Sires winner Anamoe, the race has become much more competitive than perhaps was first thought. The Team Hawkes trained galloper Hilal, who ran a closing 2nd to Anamoe in that ATC Sires is the current favourite with BlueBet at $3.50. The forecast for the rest of the week is clear so we should be racing on a good track. The rail goes out to the +6M position. Favouring horses settling closer to the speed but the track should play fair.

 

SPEED MAP

Looks good speed here with the likes of MAURICE’S MEDAD, CONVERGE and WOLFBURN all likely to head forward and sort themselves out for the lead. Should set a good gallop. HILAL has finally drawn a gate and can settle much closer here from the good draw. ARNAQEUR should race handy from PORT LOUIS who may look to push forward from the wide draw but could get caught deep. CAPTIVANT next from GIN MARTINI and DAILY BUGLE. AKAHATA on their backs in company with LEASE. QUEEN OF WIZARDRY, I’VE BEAN THERE and PATTON look your backmarkers.

 

KEY RUNNERS

  1. HILAL (Tommy Berry/Team Hawkes) $3.40

Deserved favourite for mine coming out of the Sires where he started $13 versus Anamoe and was good when making a long sustained run from the back. Even though the winner was in a different class, he still hit the line strongly running the 2nd fastest last 800,600,400 & 200m sectionals of the race. Just got the better of Captivant late who he meets here again but I think he may be open to more improvement as he was a month between runs going into the Sires. Crucially on Saturday, he’s drawn to sit much closer in the run whereas in previous starts he’s had to be ridden cold from wide gates. Gets his regular rider back on in Tommy Berry and also gets back on top of the ground, which he looks highly suited too just by looking at this bloke in the yard. You could make the case that he’s getting deep into the prep now with this being his 5th start, but I think this looks the target and if he’s not over the top he looks the clear horse to beat. Keen to be with him and the $3.40 looks acceptable.

 

  1. CAPTIVANT (James McDonald/Peter & Paul Snowden) $4.20

The other runner coming out of what I think is the strongest formline is Captivant who ran third to Anamoe and Hilal in the Sires off a $21 SP. Got into a bit of a bumping duel with Hilal on the corner and was just run over late but it was still a strong effort from this son of Capitalist. Prior to that I thought he was very good when running a gallant 5th in the Slipper ($81 SP). Ready to peak now 4th up and we know that the camp has a fantastic record in this race, having won it as recently as last year with Kings Legacy. As mentioned, I think Hilal might be open to more improvement but no doubt that he’s a big chance.

 

  1. PORT LOUIS (Hugh Bowman/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace) $17

Very interesting runner is this Maher and Eustace trained son of Maurice, who jumps significantly in grade here at just his third career start. Still a maiden, he’s been gallant in both career starts, first up on the Kenso where he only got going late and then he may have chased a handy one the other day at Canterbury in Billiondollarbaby. She goes to the opener on Caulfield on Saturday so we’ll get a line on how good that form is early in the day. On paper, the race at Canterbury rated fairly well and with natural improvement, I think he’s a knockout. He has obstacles to overcome, mainly the sharp rise in trip from the 1200m to the mile but on breeding that shouldn’t pose an issue. Will need luck from the gate, and this may just have come a little bit too soon for him, but he looks a horse with ability and he can be a knockout hope here at odds.

 

STRATEGY

HILAL

Firmly in the Hilal camp here. I think he gets his chance now out to the mile in what looks a target race. Open to improvement out of the Sires as he was a month between runs and back on top of the ground will help his cause. Of most importance, he finally draws a gate to be able to sit closer in the run which should have him within striking distance. It’s D-Day for him but I’m hoping his class gets him home. The two other horses mentioned look the main dangers for mine. Happy to pot the Fernhill form and Gin Martini I think is too short now.

 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!