Horse Racing Bets – Australian Oaks – Randwick Racecourse – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

2021 AUSTRALIAN OAKS PUNTING PREVIEW

GROUP 1

3YO FILLIES

2400M

$1,000,000

TRACK – GOOD 4

RAIL – +3M ENTIRE

 

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight
(kg)
Current Price
1 3×634 MONTEFILIA D PAYNE J R COLLETT (8) 56 $5.00
2 12111 AMARELINHA JAMIE RICHARDS O P BOSSON (7) 56 $4.60
3 x7811 HUNGRY HEART C WALLER K MCEVOY (3) 56 $5.00
4 2×132 HARMONY ROSE MARK NEWNHAM J PARR (5) 56 $3.40
5 1×433 IMPECUNIOUS T B & N YOUNG D OLIVER (9) 56 $16.00
6 28211 DUAIS EDWARD CUMMINGS H BOWMAN (10) 56 $14.00
7 91642 BARGAIN MARK NEWNHAM J B MC DONALD (1) 56 $14.00
8 x7116 LAND AHOY J SARGENT ALYSHA COLLETT (4) 56 $41.00
9 36655 SIGNORA NERA C WALLER B AVDULLA (6) 56 $23.00
10 5431 SASSYSAV C MAHER & D EUSTACE C WILLIAMS (2) 56 $101.00

 

OVERVIEW

One of four Group 1’ s on day two of The Championships, the three-year-old staying fillies will do battle over 2400m all vying for classic success in the Australian Oaks. A small but select field is set to contest this year’s edition, with the Mark Newnham trained filly Harmony Rose, the early favourite in BlueBet markets at $3.40. The weather in Sydney is good, so despite overcast conditions on the day we should be racing on a GOOD 4 surface. The rail goes out 3 metres for the entire circuit. Generally, running line positions are at a premium but the inside (rails in run) is unlikely to be a disadvantage either.

 

SPEED MAP

Zero speed on this map. HARMONY ROSE completely owns the lead and will take up the running as she did last start in the Vinery. A horse like SASSYSAV, who has relatively little early go could push into a forward position with the likes of BARGAIN and HUNGRY HEART using their low gates. Hungry Heart has been ridden more effectively cold this prep so she may also look to head back. LAND AHOY, DUAIS and SIGNORA NERA can find midfield positions. AMARELINHA, MONTEFILIA and IMPECUNIOUS should all be rearward on settling.

 

KEY RUNNERS 

  1. HARMONY ROSE (Parr/Newnham) $3.40

Had a fantastic preparation thus far, running big races in the Randwick Guineas against the boys and then last start in the Vinery, when she started $2.30 favourite and was only overhauled in the shadows by Hungry Heart. Arrives here 4th up at the right stage of her prep and gets all favours on the map, so I can see the appeal. Her last start in the Vinery she simply went too quick, running 15 lengths above benchmark to the 600m before staggering home in 37.64 her last 600m, and 13 flat her last furlong. Whilst Hungry Heart looked impressive to the eye in reeling her in, they certainly walked home. My issue with her now is that she has had two gut busting runs in a row. The Vinery and also prior in the Guineas when she was caught deep and did a lot of work on a hot speed. Can she get up again for her third straight run and extend that to 2400m? She profiles as she will get the trip, and with a more patient ride you’d think she would, but it is still a genuine query. No doubt maps well to receive every chance but with the question marks on the lead-up I was happy to be against her at the price. Similar Hungry Heart.

  1. MONTEFILIA (Collett/Payne) $5.00

This is the horse I want to be with and have priced her favourite. Chatter around her not being able to stay after a slightly disappointing run in last week’s Derby, but personally I think there were excuses. She just hasn’t been set up to run her best at all in her two starts over a journey. Her VRC Oaks run came four weeks between runs after she won the Spring Champion (a fast run 2000m) in the Spring on the seven day back-up, the same set-up she will use on Saturday.

The VRC Derby was run at a brutal tempo (almost 16 lengths above to the 600m) and she was easily the best of those who raced on speed. Fast forward to this prep and she kicked off at 1400m before being sent straight to the 2000m of the Rosehill Guineas. She then tackled last week’s Derby as a dominant $3.30 favourite, and had to make her run on the inside which was inferior ground for the day. She still ran the 4th fastest last 200m of the race and I thought was coming again on the line. Add all of that up and she is far more seasoned now on the quick back-up, and with the 2400m lead-up. She maps to get back on a gentle tempo, but with a cart into the race I think she’ll be able to blend in at the right time and silence those knocking her staying prowess. $5 seems more than acceptable and looks a great each way bet at those odds.

  1. AMARELINHA (Bosson/Richards) $4.60

The filly bringing the different form line into the race is the Kiwi Amarelinha, who travels across the ditch with a fairly formidable picket fence to her name. Was last beaten back in January in the Karaka Million when starting favourite only to be edged out by Aegon, a horse we’ve seen in Australia since. She’s since gone on to win her next three at SP’s of $1.40, $1.30, and most recently in the NZ Oaks when she saluted at $1.60. Proven at the trip as a winner over 2400m so she has to be respected. Just how strong the NZ form is is the question mark but very hard to doubt the camp and she’s been tuned up with a trial since. Definite chance.

 

STRATEGY

MONTEFILIA ($5.00)

Keen on the chances of Montefilia in this year’s Oaks. Think she finally finds a set-up where she looks primed to produce her best, both on the seven day back-up and with the 2400m lead-up under her belt. This looks the grand final. Likely to be ridden cold from the gate but hoping she can be the superior stayer. $5 a bet.

 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!