Horse Racing Bets – All Aged Stakes – Randwick Racecourse – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

2021 ALL AGED STAKES PUNTING PREVIEW

GROUP 1 – WFA

1400M

$600,000

TRACK – GOOD

RAIL – +6M 1000-WP, +4M Remainder

 

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight
(kg)
Current Price
1 x2250 KOLDING C WALLER B AVDULLA (3) 59 $7.50
2 x1312 MASKED CRUSADER M HAWKES TOMMY BERRY (12) 59 $2.90
3 4×714 ZOUTORI MATHEW ELLERTON & SIMON ZAHRA C WILLIAMS (2) 59 $15.00
4 17×52 DREAMFORCE J P THOMPSON J B MC DONALD (13) 59 $13.00
5 5×341 CASCADIAN JAMES CUMMINGS JAMIE KAH (1) 59 $10.00
6 x7208 FIFTY STARS T DABERNIG & B HAYES J ALLEN (5) 59 $51.00
7 03×20 IMAGING C WALLER G BOSS (10) 59 $21.00
8 381×6 KEMENTARI JAMES CUMMINGS MS R KING (9) 59 $41.00
9 07×41 I AM SUPERMAN P & P SNOWDEN K MCEVOY (4) 59 $18.00
10 01×11 SAVATIANO JAMES CUMMINGS H BOWMAN (6) 57 $6.50
11 0x313 TAGALOA T B & N YOUNG L CURRIE (7) 56.5 $10.00
12 8×343 PRAGUE ANNABEL NEASHAM J R COLLETT (11) 56.5 $21.00
13 x1495 PELTZER G RYAN & S ALEXIOU TIM CLARK (8) 56.5 $34.00

OVERVIEW

The final Group 1 of the Sydney Autumn, the All Aged Stakes, headlines this Saturday’s bumper meeting from Royal Randwick. This year’s race has attracted a highly talented field, with nine of the thirteen gallopers having already tasted success at Group 1 level. Masked Crusader, the up and coming star from the Hawkes yard, currently sits atop BlueBet’s market in early betting at $2.80. The forecast for the rest of the week is clear so we should be racing on a good track. The rail goes out to the +6M position. Favouring horses settling closer to the speed but the track should play fair.

 

SPEED MAP

Speed looks genuine enough. Would expect an average to slightly above average tempo. DREAMFORCE will look to find the top from the wide draw with PELTZER, who should go forward this week with Tim Clark jumping back aboard. KOLDING and SAVATIANO the two who park just off them. TAGALOA will be in the mix with I AM SUPERMAN next from ZOUTORI and KEMENTARI. CASCADIAN worse than midfield in company with IMAGING. MASKED

CRUSADER has been slow away at his last few starts so I think they would have to ride him cold here from the draw? PRAGUE and FIFTY STARS out the back.

 

KEY RUNNERS

  1. MASKED CRUSADER (Tommy Berry/Team Hawkes) $2.80

The new kid on the block who has announced himself as an elite sprinter at his last two starts, winning his first Group 1 in Melbourne in the William Reid and then running a slashing 2nd to Nature Strip a fortnight ago in the TJ. A little bit of commentary around the ride in the TJ but on no planet does he win the race. Few little negatives with him on Saturday that has me inclined to take him on at the price. The first of those is the draw. This horse has already shown in recent starts that he can be slow away from the machines, a repeat of that from the wide gate and he almost certainly has to be ridden cold. I would prefer him drawn out than in but he will still give his main rivals a big start. Secondly, is the potential race shape. Masked Crusader has been able to showcase his big turn of foot and elite closing sectionals almost exclusively off slow run races throughout his career. Last start in the TJ they went 5 lengths slow to the 600m, with MC running home 9.6 lengths above benchmark for his final 600m. This is a trait he’s showcased all throughout his career. With a faster run race expected on Saturday, there is potential that his big finish could be dulled by a bigger exertion mid race. Finally, the distance. Despite all signs pointing to the fact that he’ll run out the 1400m he’s still yet to tick the box. Add these factors together, and at $2.80 he seems a little too well found by early price assessors. Can no doubt win but I have him priced more of a $4.00 chance, so on that basis, happy to bet around him.

 

  1. KOLDING (Brenton Avdulla/Chris Waller) $10

Big price this galloper and expecting him to improve dramatically on Saturday. Lines up here 4 weeks between runs after a failure in the George Ryder but that was a complete forgive. Drew 13 of 13 that day and sat three deep the entire on a hot fence day. The $6 SP puts him right in the game and his runs prior when finishing close up in the Apollo and Chipping Norton were both good. The key here is the good track. It is the first time he sees a genuinely good surface this preparation which should see him able to find his best. The low draw’s another positive that will allow him to settle close to the speed without spending any early petrol. At double figures he looks overs and I definitely want to have him on my side.

 

  1. SAVATIANO (Hugh Bowman/James Cummings) $6.50

Another horse that looks set for this is the Godolphin mare Savatiano, who got her well deserved Group 1 last start in the Canterbury over 1300m at Randwick. Kept fresh since that effort, which is when this mare races best (6/9 1st up), she looks another huge chance in this race on Saturday. Worth noting that she started $3.80 in that Canterbury Stakes versus $5.50 Masked Crusader, so on that alone the gap between them looks too big in early markets. She gets a dry track which she loves and she possesses fantastic tactical speed, that will have her park in a perfect position here just off the speed, ready to strike as they top the rise. Bowman sticks and although 1400m is as far as she wants, her record is hard to knock. Big hope.

 

STRATEGY

KOLDING & SAVATIANO

As outlined I think Masked Crusader has come up too short in early markets so the value lies around him. Happy to back both Kolding and Savatiano to beat him. Both set for this race, get optimal conditions, and map perfectly on a +6M rail at Randwick which may favour those horses settling closer to the speed. Honourable mention to Imaging who I think is the best roughie in the race.

 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!