Horse Racing Bets – Group 1 Newmarket Hcp – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

NEWMARKET HANDICAP PREVIEW

GROUP 1
1200m
RAIL +5M ENTIRE
GOOD 4

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight (kg) Current Price
1 114×7 ZOUTORI MATHEW ELLERTON & SIMON ZAHRA L CURRIE (4) 57 $19
2 111×8 ELITE STREET D MORTON M ZAHRA (11) 56.5 $26
3 303×2 IMAGING C WALLER D LANE (5) 56.5 $13
4 11×23 KEMALPASA R & C JOLLY J TOEROEK (15) 56.5
5 122×1 CELEBRITY QUEEN G & A WILLIAMS W PIKE (6) 56 $13
6 5407x DALASAN LEON MACDONALD & ANDREW GLUYAS J ALLEN (13) 55 $26
7 010×5 FLIT JAMES CUMMINGS D OLIVER (17) 54.5 $17
8 528×0 STANDOUT G RYAN & S ALEXIOU M WALKER (7) 54.5 $51
9 33×20 BOLD STAR G RICHARDS D W STACKHOUSE (9) 54 $67
10 344×4 BROOKLYN HUSTLE J WARREN & D KRONGOLD D THORNTON (10) 54 $15
11 17×57 HALVORSEN R GRIFFITHS & M DE KOCK LACHLAN KING (12) 54 $101
12 39152 INDIAN PACIFIC N PARNHAM B PARNHAM (3) 54 $29
13 52×18 PROPHET’S THUMB A & S FREEDMAN C NEWITT (2) 54 $51
14 111×2 SEPTEMBER RUN C WALLER C WILLIAMS (8) 54 $2.25
15 x311x SIRIUS SUSPECT S HASAN JAMIE KAH (14) 54 $12
16 6×822 AMISH BOY C MAHER & D EUSTACE D YENDALL (1) 52 $61
17 x48x3 PRAGUE ANNABEL NEASHAM M J DEE (16) 52 $41
18 112×3 SWATS THAT Leon & Troy Corstens J M NEIL (18) 52 $7.50

OVERVIEW

One of Melbourne and indeed Australia’s premier sprint races, the Newmarket Handicap, highlights a stellar card of Group 1 racing on ‘Super Saturday’ at Flemington. While headline sprinters Nature Strip and Bivouac may be missing, this year’s race still boasts a strong line-up of emerging sprinters from several converging form lines, which should make for a fascinating contest. The Chris Waller trained three-year-old filly September Run is your favourite in early markets as she looks to continue her strong affinity for the straight six.

SPEED

Speed here from the WA sprinter INDIAN PACIFIC who has drawn inside and SIRIUS SUSPECT the outside. Will be interesting to see whether or not they converge up the middle, make their way to one particular side of the track or even split. SWATS THAT won’t be far away on the stands rail from FLIT, PRAGUE if he can step, and DALASAN. ELITE STREET closer this week perhaps from ZOUTORI and IMAGING finding midfield spots. SEPTEMBER RUN won’t want to be too far away I don’t think with relatively average speed here so look for Craig Williams to try and tag a fancied runner. STANDOUT with the blinkers on can be closer? BOLD STAR and AMISH BOY next from CELEBRITY QUEEN, PROPHETS THUMB, BROOKLYN HUSTLE AND HALVORSEN all heading back.

KEY RUNNERS

  1. SEPTEMBER RUN ($2.15) (Craig Williams/Chris Waller)

Deserved favourite for mine after a great run first up when chasing Nature Strip in the Lightning (1000m). Shot out of a cannon late to savage the line and record the quickest last 400/200m of the meeting. That’s obviously not uncommon in a 1000m event, but her last 200m was 2.5 lengths quicker than anything else in the race, a great return to racing which signalled she’d be well suited stepping to 1200m second up. Absolutely loves it up the straight, with that last start defeat the sole blemish in her form having won her previous three starts at Flemington. Three-year-olds have won this race the last two years (Bivouac and Sunlight) so she profiles great in that regard and the draw gives Williams options. He can sum it up early and look to plot the best course. She really does look the best sprinter of this lot, has SP’s over a number of her key rivals and is already a Group 1 winner down the straight. With even luck I think she’s very hard to hold out. On top.

  1. SWATS THAT ($7.50) (Jye McNeil/Leon & Troy Corstens)

$11-$7.50 in early markets has been Swats That, with many considering this filly to be the main danger to the favourite having also ran huge first up when third in the Lightning. Hard to see her turning the tables though, having met September Run on three occasions with the ledger currently a lopsided 3-0. The key advantage for her is the map. She’s drawn perfectly in 17 to stalk Sirius Suspect in what is usually the A1 ground down the straight. Couple that with the fact that she meets September Run 2kg better off at the weights and you can see why she has some admirers.

  1. PRAGUE ($51) (Michael Dee/Annabel Neasham)

Think the market might be slightly underestimating this colt’s ability at the early prices. Returned with a strong first up run in the Eskimo Prince in Sydney where he got back in a slowly run race but made up good ground on straightening. That form may not entirely have been franked since but I like the freshen up and the trial in between was sensational. Blinkers go back on on Saturday and is drawn the right part of the track. His one go previously down the straight he ran very commendable when only beaten a length by Doubtland in the Danehill. That ties into September Run and Swats That and I think this colt may have even improved from the Spring. Best roughie of the race for mine and we’re getting a really big price.

STRATEGY

SEPTEMBER RUN ($2.25)

Firmly in the corner of September Run here. Her return in the Lightning was dazzling. Showed she could more than compete in open class and her straight track record is simply too good to ignore. As mentioned, I think Williams has options from the draw and if she is afforded the opportunity to go through her gears, I think her turn of foot will be too strong. As mentioned, I think Prague is the best roughie in the race and I can also play him small for a good result.

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!