Horse Racing Bets – Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

CHIPPING NORTON STAKES 2021 PREVIEW

Randwick Race 6 – 4:25pm

GROUP 1 – WFA

1600

Rail – TRUE

SOFT 7

# Form Horse Trainer Jockey (barrier) Weight (kg) Current Price
1 10×22 KOLDING C WALLER H BOWMAN (2) 59 $4.80
2 2605x AVILIUS JAMES CUMMINGS N RAWILLER (7) 59 $17
3 1x79x SOUTHERN FRANCE C MAHER & D EUSTACE J R COLLETT (3) 59 $91
4 4508x MASTER OF WINE M HAWKES TOMMY BERRY (9) 59 $13
5 720×8 PRINCE FAWAZ A CUMMINGS TOM MARQUAND (1) 59 $91
6 117×3 VERRY ELLEEGANT C WALLER J B MC DONALD (4) 57 $2.60
7 561×1 COLETTE JAMES CUMMINGS MS R KING (8) 57 $3.20
8 220×4 FUNSTAR C WALLER G BOSS (5) 57 $10
9 203×6 TOFFEE TONGUE C WALLER B AVDULLA (6) 57 $29

OVERVIEW

The first Group 1 of the Sydney Autumn takes places this Saturday with the running of the Chipping Norton Stakes over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). It looks an intriguing race, with a number of runners set to renew rivalries from the Apollo Stakes a fortnight ago mixed in with a few headline resumers. At time of writing, the track was rated a SOFT 7 but with drying conditions Friday, we may be in store for an upgrade if the rain holds off on race day which will be crucial to the market. Expecting the track to favour those in running line positions and perhaps finding the middle lanes in the straight. Back markers should get their chance.

 

SPEED

This race is highly devout of tempo. PRINCE FAWAZ, a horse best suited at 2000m led them last start in the Apollo at a walk (10 lengths below benchmark for the class to the 600m) so he looks to be prominent again from the inside draw although KOLDING may look to cross him this week and find the front. FUNSTAR won’t be too far away with MASTER OF WINE and COLETTE both wanting to find forward positions. Interesting to see whether or not Colette will be able to find a spot from the tricky draw, if VERRY ELLEEGANT is away cleaner she can certainly settle closer and could tactically make Colette work a little early. TOFFEE TONGUE will settle off them with SOUTHERN FRANCE and AVILIUS the two expected back markers.

 

KEY RUNNERS

6. VERRY ELLEEGANT ($2.60) (James McDonald/Chris Waller)

Ultimately did too much wrong 1st up in the Apollo stepping slow and forcing McDonald to use her up slightly in the early stages. Over raced thereafter and Colette just proved too sharp for her. Worth noting that she resumed off a Melbourne Cup preparation so she can be forgiven for being a little flat and the slow race shape was certainly against her. She still found the line really well when balanced up (quickest last 200m of the race) and was strong through the line. Looking at her form, she undoubtedly performs best in races with fast lead speeds, so the sit/sprint nature of this race again looks against her, although I think they must go faster than they did the other day. It is a Group 1 race. If they do, I think the step to the mile is in her favour and she is the one I want to be with. If the track is a Soft 7 or worse I think the current price is acceptable however with an upgrade, I’d look for the market to take her on slightly and we may be able to shop better.

 

7. COLETTE ($3.20) (Rachel King/James Cummings)

Jumped out of the ground 1st up in the Apollo with no blinkers on (stay off Saturday) and off just one trial with targets over longer trips expected this preparation. Market didn’t really find her either with the daughter of Hallowed Crown far out performing her $12 SP. It was the win of a mare who may have just come back a better horse this preparation having won an Oaks as a three year old filly and then tipped out a winner when saluting in the Golden Eagle in the spring. It is obvious that she has an affinity for wet tracks, having never tasted defeat on rain affected going which she of course saw 1st up. She enjoyed a perfect run on that occasion, tracking the speed and really sprinting hard late to record the fastest last 600m of the entire meeting. You’d think the step to the mile suits her better as well so if she holds her form she’s awfully hard to beat again. A drying track will obviously be against her and I just want to see her come out and do it again. No doubting she’s returned well but with a slightly tricky map, I think she’s well enough found and happy to bet around her.

 

1. KOLDING ($4.80) (Hugh Bowman/Chris Waller)

The only other chance in the race looks to be Kolding who really comes into calculations if we are working on a better track. The ace he holds is he is the only runner 3rd up and he looks cherry ripe stepping to the 1600m in a race where he looks to control on speed. Had to sit outside lead in the Apollo where he worked to the line just fair but that was on a Soft 7 surface. Won this course and distance last preparation (beating home Verry Elleegant) and has a strong affinity for Randwick so if the track is favoring on speed runners he may be the one that they all need to catch.

 

STRATEGY

VERRY ELLEEGANT

Verry Elleegant goes on top. As outlined she had excuses 1st up in a race that wasn’t run to suit. The step to 1600m is in her favour and I suspect if she can step cleanly, she can park closer and let roll earlier to utilize her superior stamina. Much more confident with her on a wet track but if it is improving I think we’ll get a better price. If that is the case, I can also have something on Kolding to either save or win small, with map favours and a fitness edge. Against Colette at the price and I don’t think the likes of Avilius and Master Of Wine resuming are winning chances.

 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!